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Global Manpower Trends: Future Predictions

Future Global Predictions

  1. The global working age population will drop dramatically during the next 15 years and the percentage of people over age 65 will rise substantially.

  2. Every year there will be more workers reaching retirement age than there will be new workers to replace them especially in the world’s wealthiest nations.

  3. Longer lives and lower birth rates are combining to increase the average age of the population leading to increased healthcare and pension costs at a time when there will be fewer taxpayers to shoulder the burden.

  4. In developing countries the poorest, least productive and least educated will become a much larger portion of the world’s population.

Based on the previous factors, the following can be predicted:

  1. Consumer demand in the “developed” world will decline impacting their economies.

  2. Labor shortages will occur in the industrialized countries leading to higher levels of wages and lower profit margins.

  3. Steady growth will happen in emerging countries…Asia will be a star performer while Africa will remain in a crisis.

  4. The transferring of manufacturing production to Asia will continue.

  5. The “welfare state” will be under threat. Aging populations will put immense pressure on government and corporate funded healthcare programs.

  6. Economic, health and lifestyle factors will make working past 65 the norm. Corporate retention programs will focus on keeping the older employee.

  7. By 2020 the mandatory retirement ages in most professions will be raise to at least 70. Retraining will be important.

Major Issues to Consider

  1. What are the demographic, population and worker trends throughout your region?

  2. How many of your organization’s human assets are near retirement age and what are the plans to replace them? How do we build our talent pipeline to ensure the long-term growth plans and the viability of the business?

  3. Given your organization’s expansion plans what will be the financial impact on longer-term healthcare costs for its employees, families, and parents?

  4. How should Institutions of Higher Learning and their academic programs be expanded to ensure the number of graduates needed to meet business requirements?

  5. How will your organization grow globally…through acquisitions, partnerships, alliances, building regional production plants? What will the impacts be on corporate governance?

  6. What talent management and recruitment strategies should be designed and implemented to make your organization a global employer of choice? Do you need to change your global compensation strategy?

  7. What strategies do you need to implement to improve retention levels? How will you motivate your high performing employees to say?

  8. How should your organization’s culture change (leadership style, delegation, building trust, accountability, performance, improved communications etc.) to meet the recruitment and retention challenge?

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“He who is not busy being born again is busy dying”

an old Zen Philosopher

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